Skip to main content
V-Lab

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

14.15%

increased by 0.85%

1 Week

14.47%

increased by 1.17%

1 Month

15.58%

increased by 2.28%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5681
5.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0947
39.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9899
546.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1832
7.70***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days