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State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

25.05%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

25.06%

increased by 0.22%

1 Month

25.09%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 69 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 69 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 69-day half-lifev = 7.63 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.5887
1.52
αscore0.0955
9.74***
βpersistence0.9900
143.10***
νDF7.6258
1.78*

0.990

Persistence

69d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.5887
1.52
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0955
9.74***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9900
143.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6258
1.78*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days