State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
14.78%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
15.06%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
16.08%
increased by 1.56%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 7.25 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5372 | 1.48 |
| αARCH | 0.0943 | 9.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9899 | 138.25*** |
| νDF | 7.2499 | 1.90* |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5372 | 1.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0943 | 9.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9899 | 138.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2499 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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