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State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.47%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

11.91%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

13.42%

increased by 1.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 69 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 69 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5644
5.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0949
39.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9899
548.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2041
7.69***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days