State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.38%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
15.65%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
16.60%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5740 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0946 | 39.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9899 | 547.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1904 | 7.69*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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