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State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

17.36%

increased by 1.33%

1 Week

17.56%

increased by 1.53%

1 Month

18.28%

increased by 2.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 7.24 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5597
1.47
αARCH0.0949
9.80***
βGARCH0.9899
137.69***
νDF7.2434
1.91*

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5597
1.47
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0949
9.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9899
137.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2434
1.91*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days