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V-Lab

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.88%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

12.72%

increased by 0.63%

1 Month

14.89%

increased by 2.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0244
7.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8332
192.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1839
35.61***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0076
9.37***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0302
8.69***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9657
242.27***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days