V-Lab
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
12.78%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
13.49%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
15.51%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0242 | 7.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8327 | 191.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1846 | 35.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0077 | 9.28*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0306 | 8.63*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9653 | 237.64*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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