V-Lab
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
17.24%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
17.27%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
17.44%
decreased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0242 | 1.85* |
| βGARCH | 0.8339 | 58.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.1827 | 9.15*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0076 | 1.73* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0301 | 2.75*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9658 | 77.06*** |
0.950
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0242 | 1.85* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8339 | 58.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1827 | 9.15*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0076 | 1.73* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0301 | 2.75*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9658 | 77.06*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
Other State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs