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State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

17.24%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Week

17.27%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Month

17.44%

decreased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0242
1.85*
βGARCH0.8339
58.71***
γleverage0.1827
9.15***
λ₁tau intercept0.0076
1.73*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0301
2.75***
λ₃tau persistence0.9658
77.06***

0.950

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0242
1.85*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8339
58.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1827
9.15***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0076
1.73*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0301
2.75***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9658
77.06***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days