V-Lab
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.88%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
12.72%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
14.89%
increased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0244 | 7.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8332 | 192.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1839 | 35.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0076 | 9.37*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0302 | 8.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9657 | 242.27*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
Other State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs