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V-Lab

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

12.78%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

13.49%

increased by 0.54%

1 Month

15.51%

increased by 2.56%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0242
7.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8327
191.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1846
35.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0077
9.28***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0306
8.63***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9653
237.64***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days