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State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

23.62%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

23.41%

decreased by 1.61%

1 Month

22.87%

decreased by 2.15%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0273
2.04**
βGARCH0.8311
57.54***
γleverage0.1813
9.05***
λ₁tau intercept0.0079
1.74*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0304
2.71***
λ₃tau persistence0.9654
75.29***

0.949

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0273
2.04**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8311
57.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1813
9.05***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0079
1.74*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0304
2.71***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9654
75.29***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days