State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
14.55%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
14.94%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
16.30%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0335 | 5.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0303 | 2.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8856 | 94.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.1438 | 5.68*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0335 | 5.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0303 | 2.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8856 | 94.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1438 | 5.68*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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