V-Lab
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
12.47%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
12.99%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
14.73%
increased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0338 | 20.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0302 | 11.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8850 | 374.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1452 | 22.81*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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