State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.61%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
23.69%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
23.96%
decreased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0343 | 5.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.0325 | 2.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8835 | 91.77*** |
| γleverage | 0.1435 | 5.57*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0343 | 5.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0325 | 2.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8835 | 91.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1435 | 5.57*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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