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State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

16.60%

increased by 2.26%

1 Week

16.91%

increased by 2.57%

1 Month

17.98%

increased by 3.64%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0338
5.06***
αARCH0.0302
2.78***
βGARCH0.8849
93.54***
γleverage0.1454
5.71***

0.988

Persistence

57d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0338
5.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0302
2.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8849
93.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1454
5.71***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days