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V-Lab

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

12.47%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

12.99%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

14.73%

increased by 1.84%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0338
20.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0302
11.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8850
374.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1452
22.81***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days