V-Lab
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
17.76%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
18.01%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
18.92%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0336 | 5.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0301 | 2.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8855 | 94.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.1444 | 5.70*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0336 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0301 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8855 | 94.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1444 | 5.70*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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