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State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

23.61%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Week

23.69%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Month

23.96%

decreased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0343
5.20***
αARCH0.0325
2.92***
βGARCH0.8835
91.77***
γleverage0.1435
5.57***

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0343
5.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0325
2.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8835
91.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1435
5.57***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days