V-Lab
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
16.60%
increased by 2.26%
1 Week
16.91%
increased by 2.57%
1 Month
17.98%
increased by 3.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0338 | 5.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0302 | 2.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8849 | 93.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.1454 | 5.71*** |
0.988
Persistence57d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0338 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0302 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8849 | 93.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1454 | 5.71*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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