V-Lab
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.79%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
12.44%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
14.29%
increased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0035 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1167 | 9.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8472 | 56.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.1614 | -4.16*** |
| γ2 | 0.3424 | 5.76*** |
| γ3 | -0.3225 | -6.44*** |
| γ4 | 0.1998 | 3.90*** |
| γ5 | -0.0484 | -0.97 |
| γ6 | -0.0367 | -0.80 |
| γ7 | 0.0390 | 1.23 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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