V-Lab
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
15.53%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
15.76%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
16.48%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3358 | 7.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1356 | 8.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8294 | 48.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0065 | -0.63 |
| γ2 | 0.0247 | 1.53 |
| γ3 | -0.0257 | -2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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