Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.39%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
16.55%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
17.04%
decreased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3355 | 7.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1360 | 8.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8290 | 48.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0067 | -0.64 |
| γ2 | 0.0249 | 1.53 |
| γ3 | -0.0257 | -2.75*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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