V-Lab
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
11.17%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
11.59%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
12.94%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0292 | 4.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0168 | 0.69 |
| βGARCH | 0.8649 | 51.27*** |
| γleverage | 0.1961 | 5.22*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0292 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0168 | 0.69 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8649 | 51.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1961 | 5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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