V-Lab
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
11.57%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
11.96%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
13.23%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0293 | 4.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0167 | 0.68 |
| βGARCH | 0.8648 | 51.10*** |
| γleverage | 0.1965 | 5.21*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0293 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0167 | 0.68 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8648 | 51.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1965 | 5.21*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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