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Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

11.17%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

11.59%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

12.94%

increased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

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graph of Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0292
4.19***
αARCH0.0168
0.69
βGARCH0.8649
51.27***
γleverage0.1961
5.22***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0292
4.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0168
0.69
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8649
51.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1961
5.22***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days