V-Lab
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
13.97%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
14.21%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
15.03%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0292 | 16.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0166 | 2.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8652 | 204.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1967 | 20.81*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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