Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.43%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Week
19.53%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
20.12%
decreased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8166 | 134.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2445 | 32.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0194 | 2.96*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1249 | 2.56** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8596 | 15.74*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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