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Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

13.92%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

14.17%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

14.36%

decreased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2005 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8166
36.78***
γleverage0.2436
8.30***
λ₁tau intercept0.0232
1.75*
λ₂forecast adj.0.1415
2.64***
λ₃tau persistence0.8389
13.92***

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8166
36.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2436
8.30***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0232
1.75*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1415
2.64***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8389
13.92***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days