V-Lab
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
14.85%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
15.63%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
17.77%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8161 | 134.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2453 | 32.28*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0191 | 2.98*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1232 | 2.57** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8615 | 16.06*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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