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V-Lab

Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

15.21%

decreased by 1.28%

1 Week

15.33%

decreased by 1.16%

1 Month

15.74%

decreased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4895
5.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1105
34.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9877
423.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5638
6.62***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days