V-Lab
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
11.73%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
11.98%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
12.83%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 7.62 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4601 | 1.46 |
| αARCH | 0.1110 | 8.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9873 | 105.06*** |
| νDF | 7.6206 | 1.64 |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4601 | 1.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1110 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9873 | 105.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6206 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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