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Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

11.73%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

11.98%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

12.83%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

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graph of Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 7.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4601
1.46
αARCH0.1110
8.54***
βGARCH0.9873
105.06***
νDF7.6206
1.64

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4601
1.46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1110
8.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9873
105.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6206
1.64

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days