Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
160.75%
increased by 4.60%
1 Week
162.67%
increased by 6.52%
1 Month
167.94%
increased by 11.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 35.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 35.60 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 125.7128 | 1.99** |
| αARCH | 0.1016 | 1.02 |
| βGARCH | 0.9437 | 11.44*** |
| νDF | 35.5977 | 0.04 |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 125.7128 | 1.99** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1016 | 1.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9437 | 11.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 35.5977 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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