V-Lab
Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
115.22%
decreased by 4.26%
1 Week
121.05%
increased by 1.57%
1 Month
135.93%
increased by 16.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9928 | 4.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.1172 | 2.45** |
| βGARCH | 0.8249 | 9.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1475 | 0.11 |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9928 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1172 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8249 | 9.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1475 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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