V-Lab
First Eagle US Equity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
11.46%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
11.45%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
11.45%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~117 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0437 | 7.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9941 | 0.96 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3448 | 0.05 |
0.994
Persistence117d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0437 | 7.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9941 | 0.96 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3448 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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