Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

First Eagle US Equity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

11.41%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

11.41%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

11.41%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:32 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of First Eagle US Equity ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~134 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0394
7.30***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9948
1.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.2836
0.04

0.995

Persistence

134d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0394
7.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9948
1.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.2836
0.04

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

134 days