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V-Lab

First Eagle US Equity ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

3.67%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

4.29%

increased by 0.61%

1 Month

4.93%

increased by 1.25%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of First Eagle US Equity ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0071
0.95
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0599
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4202
4.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
δ

power

Transformation power

3.0000
3.73***

Persistence:

0.803

Half-life:

3 days