V-Lab
First Eagle US Equity ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.67%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.29%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
4.93%
increased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0599 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4202 | 4.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 3.73*** |
Persistence:
0.803
Half-life:
3 days
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