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V-Lab

Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

156.19%

increased by 7.74%

1 Week

154.10%

increased by 5.65%

1 Month

147.74%

decreased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026
Extended Optimization
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 152% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1112
1.21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0397
4.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9311
86.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.7287
-5.98***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
1.57

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days