V-Lab
Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
156.19%
1 Week
154.10%
1 Month
147.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 152% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1112 | 1.21 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0397 | 4.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9311 | 86.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.7287 | -5.98*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.57 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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