V-Lab
Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
125.66%
decreased by 2.35%
1 Week
128.42%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
137.01%
increased by 9.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.4338 | 1.09 |
| αARCH | 0.1062 | 0.72 |
| βGARCH | 0.9049 | 21.50*** |
| γleverage | -0.0860 | -0.50 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4338 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1062 | 0.72 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9049 | 21.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0860 | -0.50 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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