Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
223.54%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Week
223.87%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Month
225.09%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 50.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 50.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 218.2409 | 1.77* |
| αscore | 0.0620 | 1.50 |
| βpersistence | 0.9848 | 39.66*** |
| νDF | 50.1126 | 0.03 |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 218.2409 | 1.77* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0620 | 1.50 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9848 | 39.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 50.1126 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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