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Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

223.54%

decreased by 2.02%

1 Week

223.87%

decreased by 1.69%

1 Month

225.09%

decreased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 50.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 50.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run218.2409
1.77*
αscore0.0620
1.50
βpersistence0.9848
39.66***
νDF50.1126
0.03

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

218.2409
1.77*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0620
1.50
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9848
39.66***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

50.1126
0.03

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days