V-Lab
Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
149.90%
1 Week
150.17%
1 Month
151.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 46.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 248.2307 | 1.21 |
| αARCH | 0.0438 | 1.25 |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 72.31*** |
| νDF | 46.1097 | 0.02 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 248.2307 | 1.21 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 1.25 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 72.31*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 46.1097 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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