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Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

149.90%

decreased by 2.74%

1 Week

150.17%

decreased by 2.47%

1 Month

151.22%

decreased by 1.42%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

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graph of Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 46.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 46.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst248.2307
1.21
αARCH0.0438
1.25
βGARCH0.9990
72.31***
νDF46.1097
0.02

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

248.2307
1.21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0438
1.25
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
72.31***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

46.1097
0.02

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days