V-Lab
Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
203.22%
increased by 6.16%
1 Week
203.42%
increased by 6.36%
1 Month
204.07%
increased by 7.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1370 | 0.37 |
| αARCH | -0.1624 | -0.35 |
| βGARCH | 0.9733 | 42.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.0551 | 0.38 |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1370 | 0.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | -0.1624 | -0.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9733 | 42.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0551 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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