V-Lab
Canary HBAR ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
1.45%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
1.47%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
1.54%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 28, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Negative shocks have larger impact on volatility (leverage effect)
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0172 | -1.62 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | -0.1457 | -6.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9938 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1490 | -4.53*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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