Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
50.58%
decreased by 5.70%
1 Week
50.72%
decreased by 5.56%
1 Month
51.26%
decreased by 5.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Negative shocks have larger impact on volatility (leverage effect)
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0257 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | -0.1464 | -5.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9901 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0826 | -6.42*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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