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V-Lab

Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

50.58%

decreased by 5.70%

1 Week

50.72%

decreased by 5.56%

1 Month

51.26%

decreased by 5.02%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Negative shocks have larger impact on volatility (leverage effect)

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0257
2.23**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

-0.1464
-5.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9901
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0826
-6.42***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days