Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
61.60%
decreased by 3.32%
1 Week
61.96%
decreased by 2.96%
1 Month
62.70%
decreased by 2.22%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 164% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.72 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2900 | 2.40** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 5.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8257 | 27.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5856 | 4.21*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7233 | 3.48*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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