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V-Lab

Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

61.60%

decreased by 3.32%

1 Week

61.96%

decreased by 2.96%

1 Month

62.70%

decreased by 2.22%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 164% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.72 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2900
2.40**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0884
5.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8257
27.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5856
4.21***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.7233
3.48***

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days