Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap & Income ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.86%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
16.16%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
16.39%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 2.60 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3747 | 8.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0349 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5226 | 10.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9999 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.6010 | 3.94*** |
Persistence:
0.660
Half-life:
2 days
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