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Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap & Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

15.36%

decreased by 1.57%

1 Week

16.40%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

16.83%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap & Income ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 15.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1418
16.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1661
1.79*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4578
4.97***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

15.0258
0.23

Persistence:

0.458

Half-life:

1 days