V-Lab
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap & Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
15.36%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
16.40%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
16.83%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 15.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1418 | 16.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1661 | 1.79* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4578 | 4.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 15.0258 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.458
Half-life:
1 days
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