V-Lab
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap & Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
15.00%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
15.82%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
16.39%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0274 | 5.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1624 | 1.58 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4785 | 1.48 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1780 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.641
Half-life:
2 days
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