V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.50%
decreased by 1.71%
1 Week
31.24%
decreased by 1.97%
1 Month
30.30%
decreased by 2.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0912 | 4.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1178 | 4.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8673 | 33.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0025 | -0.14 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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