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V-Lab
V-Lab

Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

24.67%

increased by 1.50%

1 Week

24.55%

increased by 1.38%

1 Month

24.09%

increased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0681
4.22***
αARCH0.1184
4.84***
βGARCH0.8649
34.43***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0017
-0.11

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0681
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1184
4.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8649
34.43***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0017
-0.11

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days