V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
18.18%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
18.17%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
18.15%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0287 | 0.76 |
| αARCH | 0.1110 | 3.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8668 | 30.41*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0287 | 0.76 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1110 | 3.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8668 | 30.41*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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