Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
44.81%
increased by 9.38%
1 Week
45.27%
increased by 9.84%
1 Month
46.96%
increased by 11.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1233 | 4.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2951 | 10.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6996 | 60.92*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
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