Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
33.07%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
32.57%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Month
31.05%
decreased by 3.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9482 | 6.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1104 | 6.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9504 | 133.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9472 | 1.44 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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