V-Lab
Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.18%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
23.63%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
24.86%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9749 | 5.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1115 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9483 | 122.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1986 | 1.68* |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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