Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
33.62%
decreased by 3.39%
1 Week
34.51%
decreased by 2.50%
1 Month
37.89%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 10:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1214 | 8.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3808 | 6.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6894 | 51.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1404 | -1.86* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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