V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
14.08%
increased by 0.92%
1 Week
14.37%
increased by 1.21%
1 Month
15.41%
increased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 118% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0242 | 6.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1178 | 8.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8029 | 75.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1392 | 5.29*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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