V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
26.99%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
26.93%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
26.71%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0628 | 6.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0920 | 9.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8828 | 78.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.1760 | -4.42*** |
| γ2 | 0.3168 | 5.04*** |
| γ3 | -0.2199 | -4.24*** |
| γ4 | 0.0903 | 1.77* |
| γ5 | 0.0232 | 0.45 |
| γ6 | -0.0399 | -0.80 |
| γ7 | -0.0090 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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