Skip to main content
V-Lab

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

18.56%

increased by 0.84%

1 Week

17.52%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

14.66%

decreased by 3.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0294
31.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2019
68.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7901
256.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2169
31.24***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.7913
20.96***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days