State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
18.56%
increased by 0.84%
1 Week
17.52%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
14.66%
decreased by 3.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0294 | 31.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2019 | 68.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7901 | 256.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2169 | 31.24*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7913 | 20.96*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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