State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
17.64%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Week
16.81%
decreased by 2.52%
1 Month
14.56%
decreased by 4.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 25% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.01 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0366 | 25.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2078 | 59.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7758 | 204.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1092 | 19.91*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0079 | 16.74*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
Other State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on ETFs