V-Lab
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
17.26%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
17.05%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Month
16.63%
decreased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 281% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0376 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7960 | 75.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1058 | 17.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0106 | 4.19*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0530 | 4.33*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9379 | 68.03*** |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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