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V-Lab

State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

14.88%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

15.35%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

16.31%

increased by 0.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 279% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0379
8.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7962
76.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1057
17.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0106
4.23***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0530
4.36***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9379
68.48***

Persistence:

0.887

Half-life:

6 days