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V-Lab

State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

17.26%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Week

17.05%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Month

16.63%

decreased by 1.67%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 281% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0376
8.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7960
75.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1058
17.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0106
4.19***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0530
4.33***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9379
68.03***

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days