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V-Lab

State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.19%

increased by 0.70%

1 Week

16.26%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

16.48%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 188% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.65 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0222
27.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0723
30.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9138
374.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3091
13.90***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6533
32.66***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days