V-Lab
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
19.66%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
19.81%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
20.34%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 315% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0243 | 23.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0774 | 35.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9204 | 429.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5303 | 21.03*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2053 | 32.07*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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