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V-Lab

State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

19.66%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Week

19.81%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Month

20.34%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 315% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0243
23.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0774
35.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9204
429.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5303
21.03***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2053
32.07***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days