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V-Lab

iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

13.88%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

14.40%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

16.15%

increased by 2.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 260% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0436
17.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0772
22.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9024
288.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3507
13.49***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7491
27.46***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days