V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
13.88%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
14.40%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
16.15%
increased by 2.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 260% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0436 | 17.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0772 | 22.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9024 | 288.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3507 | 13.49*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7491 | 27.46*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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