V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.86%
increased by 0.66%
1 Week
15.31%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
16.80%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 264% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 264% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0459 | 3.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0344 | 2.34** |
| βGARCH | 0.8995 | 75.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.0908 | 2.90*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0459 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0344 | 2.34** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8995 | 75.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0908 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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