V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
14.46%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
14.95%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
16.55%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 269% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0468 | 15.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0338 | 9.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8995 | 298.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0911 | 11.65*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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