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iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

18.63%

increased by 1.09%

1 Week

18.86%

increased by 1.32%

1 Month

19.63%

increased by 2.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 271% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 271% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0459
3.75***
αARCH0.0336
2.31**
βGARCH0.9002
75.44***
γleverage0.0910
2.93***

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0459
3.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0336
2.31**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9002
75.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0910
2.93***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days