V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.85%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
14.40%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
16.14%
increased by 2.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 272% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0473 | 15.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0337 | 9.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8992 | 297.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0917 | 11.70*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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