V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
13.54%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
14.02%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
15.53%
increased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1576 | 8.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0948 | 7.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8806 | 58.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0019 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
Other iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs