V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.19%
increased by 1.37%
1 Week
16.48%
increased by 1.66%
1 Month
17.43%
increased by 2.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1642 | 8.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0947 | 7.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8807 | 58.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0019 | 2.72*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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