V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
13.15%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
13.64%
increased by 0.58%
1 Month
15.22%
increased by 2.16%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1765 | 8.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0948 | 7.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8808 | 58.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0020 | 2.84*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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