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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

15.66%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

15.96%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

16.95%

increased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1871
8.38***
αARCH0.0949
7.25***
βGARCH0.8810
58.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0020
2.94***

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1871
8.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0949
7.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8810
58.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0020
2.94***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days