V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
15.66%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
15.96%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
16.95%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1871 | 8.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.0949 | 7.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8810 | 58.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0020 | 2.94*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1871 | 8.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0949 | 7.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8810 | 58.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0020 | 2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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