V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
13.52%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
14.06%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
15.86%
increased by 2.54%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8679 | 7.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0879 | 28.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9861 | 540.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8928 | 4.21*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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