V-Lab
iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
16.57%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
16.93%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
18.19%
increased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 8.93 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8885 | 1.94* |
| αARCH | 0.0881 | 7.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9865 | 137.43*** |
| νDF | 8.9331 | 1.06 |
0.986
Persistence51d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8885 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0881 | 7.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9865 | 137.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9331 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
Other iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs