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V-Lab

iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

13.52%

increased by 0.20%

1 Week

14.06%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

15.86%

increased by 2.54%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8679
7.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0879
28.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9861
540.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8928
4.21***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days