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V-Lab

iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

18.44%

increased by 0.96%

1 Week

18.72%

increased by 1.24%

1 Month

19.70%

increased by 2.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 8.87 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.8627
1.94*
αscore0.0875
7.24***
βpersistence0.9863
136.44***
νDF8.8715
1.06

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.8627
1.94*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0875
7.24***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9863
136.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8715
1.06

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days