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iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

18.72%

increased by 3.81%

1 Week

18.98%

increased by 4.07%

1 Month

19.92%

increased by 5.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 8.94 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8814
1.94*
αARCH0.0880
7.26***
βGARCH0.9865
138.38***
νDF8.9431
1.06

0.987

Persistence

51d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8814
1.94*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0880
7.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9865
138.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9431
1.06

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days