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V-Lab

iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

16.57%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Week

16.93%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

18.19%

increased by 0.83%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 8.93 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8885
1.94*
αARCH0.0881
7.26***
βGARCH0.9865
137.43***
νDF8.9331
1.06

0.986

Persistence

51d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8885
1.94*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0881
7.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9865
137.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9331
1.06

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days