iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
18.44%
increased by 0.96%
1 Week
18.72%
increased by 1.24%
1 Month
19.70%
increased by 2.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 8.87 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.8627 | 1.94* |
| αscore | 0.0875 | 7.24*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9863 | 136.44*** |
| νDF | 8.8715 | 1.06 |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.8627 | 1.94* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0875 | 7.24*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9863 | 136.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8715 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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