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V-Lab

iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

17.16%

increased by 1.63%

1 Week

17.51%

increased by 1.98%

1 Month

18.71%

increased by 3.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI BIC ETF Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8486
8.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0876
28.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
535.98***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9026
4.17***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days