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V-Lab
V-Lab

Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

52.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

52.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

52.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 12, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-lifev = 7.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst10.8654
0.52
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9697
1.48
νDF7.2140
0.15

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.8654
0.52
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9697
1.48
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2140
0.15

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days