V-Lab
Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
63.33%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
63.33%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
63.33%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.9168 | 0.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9124 | 0.88 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8346 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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