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V-Lab

Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

63.86%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

63.86%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

63.86%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 12, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 3.71 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run16.1834
0.09
αscore0.0000
0.00
βpersistence0.9829
0.64
νDF3.7099
0.11

0.983

Persistence

40d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

16.1834
0.09
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0000
0.00
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9829
0.64
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7099
0.11

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days