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V-Lab

Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

62.87%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

62.87%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

62.87%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 12, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 3.63 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst15.6860
0.10
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9843
0.64
νDF3.6350
0.15

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.6860
0.10
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9843
0.64
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6350
0.15

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days