Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
62.87%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
62.87%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
62.87%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 3.63 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.6860 | 0.10 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9843 | 0.64 |
| νDF | 3.6350 | 0.15 |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.6860 | 0.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9843 | 0.64 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6350 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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