Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
63.86%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
63.86%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
63.86%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 3.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 16.1834 | 0.09 |
| αscore | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βpersistence | 0.9829 | 0.64 |
| νDF | 3.7099 | 0.11 |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 16.1834 | 0.09 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9829 | 0.64 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7099 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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