V-Lab
Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
57.82%
increased by 6.85%
1 Week
59.43%
increased by 8.46%
1 Month
60.17%
increased by 9.20%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 2.35** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0991 | 5.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4296 | 2.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 499.50*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.95*** |
Persistence:
0.487
Half-life:
1 days
Other Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs