Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

57.41%

increased by 7.27%

1 Week

54.47%

increased by 4.33%

1 Month

53.22%

increased by 3.08%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 12, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
0.67
αARCH0.1476
1.78*
βGARCH0.3315
0.53
γleverage0.2662
0.40
δpower0.5000
0.91

0.452

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
0.67
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1476
1.78*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3315
0.53
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2662
0.40
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
0.91

Persistence:

0.452

Half-life:

1 days