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V-Lab

Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

57.82%

increased by 6.85%

1 Week

59.43%

increased by 8.46%

1 Month

60.17%

increased by 9.20%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 12, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
2.35**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0991
5.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4296
2.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
499.50***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.95***

Persistence:

0.487

Half-life:

1 days