V-Lab
Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
57.41%
1 Week
54.47%
1 Month
53.22%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.1476 | 1.78* |
| βGARCH | 0.3315 | 0.53 |
| γleverage | 0.2662 | 0.40 |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 0.91 |
0.452
Persistence1d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1476 | 1.78* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3315 | 0.53 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2662 | 0.40 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
0.452
Half-life:
1 days
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