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V-Lab
V-Lab

Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

39.30%

decreased by 16.32%

1 Week

40.69%

decreased by 14.93%

1 Month

41.00%

decreased by 14.62%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 12, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9773
3.89***
αARCH0.1154
1.14
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-5.1404
-0.51

0.115

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9773
3.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1154
1.14
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-5.1404
-0.51

Persistence:

0.115

Half-life:

0 days