V-Lab
Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
39.30%
decreased by 16.32%
1 Week
40.69%
decreased by 14.93%
1 Month
41.00%
decreased by 14.62%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9773 | 3.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1154 | 1.14 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -5.1404 | -0.51 |
0.115
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9773 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1154 | 1.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -5.1404 | -0.51 |
Persistence:
0.115
Half-life:
0 days
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