V-Lab
Jpmorgan Limited Dura BO ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
1.53%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
1.60%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
1.71%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3422 | 6.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0730 | 1.66* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8015 | 7.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1314 | 1.03 |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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