V-Lab
Jpmorgan Limited Dura BO ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
1.51%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.55%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
1.53%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8832 | 43.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0608 | 8.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0046 | 0.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6260 | 0.11 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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