V-Lab
Jpmorgan Limited Dura BO ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
1.56%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
1.57%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
1.64%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0139 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0450 | 8.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9706 | 103.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6522 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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