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V-Lab

Jpmorgan Limited Dura BO ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

1.56%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

1.57%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

1.64%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Jpmorgan Limited Dura BO ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0139
4.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0450
8.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9706
103.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6522
1.09

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days