V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.44%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
15.72%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
16.71%
increased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 14.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2011 | 11.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0835 | 29.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9859 | 585.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 14.0384 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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