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V-Lab

iShares Russell 2000 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

15.44%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

15.72%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

16.71%

increased by 0.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares Russell 2000 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 14.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2011
11.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0835
29.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9859
585.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

14.0384
3.00***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days