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iShares Russell 2000 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

14.77%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

15.08%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

16.16%

increased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares Russell 2000 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 14.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 14.10 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1959
2.87***
αARCH0.0834
7.49***
βGARCH0.9859
147.24***
νDF14.1002
0.75

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1959
2.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0834
7.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9859
147.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

14.1002
0.75

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days