iShares Russell 2000 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
17.38%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
17.58%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
18.29%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 14.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 14.14 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1901 | 2.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.0834 | 7.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9859 | 148.01*** |
| νDF | 14.1405 | 0.75 |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1901 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0834 | 7.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9859 | 148.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 14.1405 | 0.75 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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