V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
17.31%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
17.86%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
19.62%
increased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1567 | 11.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 8.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8869 | 79.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0029 | 2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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