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V-Lab

iShares Russell 2000 ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

17.31%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

17.86%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

19.62%

increased by 1.90%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares Russell 2000 ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1567
11.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0884
8.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8869
79.46***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0029
2.99***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days