V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
16.75%
increased by 0.17%
1 Week
17.19%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
18.56%
increased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.90) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0859 | 10.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8797 | 94.08*** |
| γleverage | 0.8999 | 8.30*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0859 | 10.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8797 | 94.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8999 | 8.30*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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