V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
17.06%
1 Week
17.33%
1 Month
18.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0347 | 7.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0695 | 8.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9190 | 116.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.8291 | 6.89*** |
| δpower | 1.0768 | 8.55*** |
0.977
Persistence29d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0347 | 7.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0695 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9190 | 116.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8291 | 6.89*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0768 | 8.55*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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