V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.37%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
16.92%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
18.48%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8795 | 305.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1531 | 45.95*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0059 | 6.04*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0239 | 8.12*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9729 | 282.65*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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