V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.33%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
15.99%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
17.76%
increased by 2.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8794 | 305.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1533 | 46.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0060 | 6.04*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0241 | 8.10*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9727 | 279.91*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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