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V-Lab

iShares Russell 2000 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

16.87%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

17.24%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

18.19%

increased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares Russell 2000 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8797
87.44***
γleverage0.1528
11.43***
λ₁tau intercept0.0061
1.20
λ₂forecast adj.0.0243
1.83*
λ₃tau persistence0.9723
63.05***

0.956

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8797
87.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1528
11.43***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0061
1.20
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0243
1.83*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9723
63.05***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days