V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
13.11%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
13.00%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
12.70%
decreased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 62% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.99 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0423 | 8.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1862 | 16.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7962 | 68.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2382 | 8.82*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9910 | 6.80*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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